Trump's fixation on tariffs: a roundup blog post, updated 2-20-26
• Americans Are Paying the Bill for Tariffs, Despite Trump’s Claims (Ana Swanson and Sydney Ember, NY Times, 2-12-26)
Research from the New York Fed confirms that U.S. companies and consumers are bearing tariff costs, despite the president’s assertions otherwise.
• Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s sweeping tariffs, sparking fierce pushback and vow of new levies (Lindsay Whitehurst, AP News, 2-20-26)
The Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s far-reaching global tariffs on Friday, handing him a stinging loss that sparked a furious attack on the court he helped shape.
Trump said he was “absolutely ashamed” of some justices who ruled 6-3 against him, calling them “disloyal to our Constitution” and “lapdogs.” At one point he even raised the specter of foreign influence without citing any evidence.
The decision could have ripple effects on economies around the globe after Trump’s moves to remake post-World War II trading alliances by wielding tariffs as a weapon.
The majority found that it is unconstitutional for the president to unilaterally set and change tariffs because taxation power clearly belongs to Congress. “The Framers did not vest any part of the taxing power in the Executive Branch,” Chief Justice John Roberts wrote.
• Supreme Court strikes down tariffs (Amy Howe, SCOTUS blog, 2-20-26)
In a major ruling on presidential power, the Supreme Court on Friday struck down the sweeping tariffs that President Donald Trump imposed in a series of executive orders. By a vote of 6-3, the justices ruled that the tariffs exceed the powers given to the president by Congress under a 1977 law providing him the authority to regulate commerce during national emergencies created by foreign threats. created by foreign threats.
The court did not weigh in, however, on whether or how the federal government should provide refunds to the importers who have paid the tariffs, estimated in 2025 at more than $200 billion. In his dissenting opinion, Justice Brett Kavanaugh suggested that the federal government “may be required to refund billions of dollars to importers who paid the IEEPA tariffs, even though some importers may have already passed on costs to consumers or others.”
In a splintered decision on Friday, the Supreme Court agreed with the challengers that IEEPA did not give Trump the power to impose the tariffs. “Based on two words separated by 16 others in … IEEPA—‘regulate’ and ‘importation’—the President asserts the independent power to impose tariffs on imports from any country, of any product, at any rate, for any amount of time,” Ct strikes down tariffs
“Those words,” Roberts continued, “cannot bear such weight.”
“IEEPA contains no reference to tariffs or duties.” Moreover, “until now no President has read IEEPA to confer such power.”
• Neil Gorsuch Knew Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Would be ‘Disappointing’ (Dan Gooding and Gabe Whisnant, Newsweek, 2-20-26) Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch acknowledged that the court’s decision striking down President Donald Trump’s global tariffs would be “disappointing” to some, but said the ruling reaffirmed a core constitutional principle that major economic decisions belong to Congress, not the president acting alone.
Writing for the majority, Chief Justice John Roberts said the Constitution “very clearly” gives Congress the power to impose taxes, including tariffs. Roberts was joined by fellow conservative justices Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett, along with all three liberal justices, Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson. Conservative Justices Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas and Brett Kavanaugh dissented.
• The Effects of Tariffs, One Year Into Trump’s Trade Experiment
(Ana Swanson, NY Times, 2-2-26)
Trump's tariff exercise pitted Mr. Trump, a longtime proponent of tariffs, against business owners who paid the levies and mainstream economists who criticized the plan.
Over the past year, Mr. Trump raised average U.S. tariffs to about 17 percent, the highest level since 1932. They have caused businesses to speed up, delay and cancel purchases, or find new countries to source products from. They have raised a significant amount of revenue for the government, much of it from American businesses. And they have caused the U.S. trade deficit to shrink and prices of American goods to rise.
A poll in January found that 54 percent of voters oppose Mr. Trump’s tariffs, and 51 percent said the president’s policies had made life less affordable for them. One goal Mr. Trump hasn’t accomplished is helping factory workers. Despite the tariffs, the manufacturing sector continued to shed jobs last year.
• CHAOTIC Senate as Trump Faces Historic Impeachment Threat From His Own Party
(YouTube video, Bradley Madden, 1-31-26)
Senior Republicans reportedly weigh impeachment behind closed doors because of Trump's tariffs.
• Canada Breaks With U.S. to Slash Tariffs on Some Chinese Electric Vehicles
(Matina Stevis-Gridneff, NY Times, 1-16-26)
Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada announced that Canada would slash tariffs on some Chinese electric vehicles and that, in return, China would reduce tariffs on Canadian canola products.
The tariff changes Mr. Carney announced were modest, but they signal an important break with the United States as Canada seeks to urgently diversify its trading partners and reduce its reliance on the United States.
President Trump has imposed tariffs on some key Canadian exports like lumber, steel and autos. He has also threatened Canadian sovereignty, a shift Mr. Carney has described as a "rupture."
• The $12 billion farm bailout. Trump Bails Out the Farmers He Kneecapped with Tariffs — Again
(National Review, 12-9-25)
“It’s becoming part of the Trump playbook. It goes like this:
(1) Farmers overwhelmingly vote for Donald Trump to be president.
(2) Trump imposes enormous tariffs unilaterally, wrecking the export markets that farmers rely on to sell their crops at profitable prices,” the editors said.
(3) "Farmers lobby the Trump administration to give them money at taxpayers’ expense to cope with the effects of the same administration’s trade policy.
(4) Trump bails out the farmers with billions of federal dollars and changes nothing about the tariffs that hurt them in the first place.”
"That looks a lot like what happened in President Trump’s first term, when his trade wars shrank U.S. agricultural exports by $27 billion in just a year and a half, from mid-2018 through 2019. After targeting China with tariffs, the PRC imposed retaliatory tariffs on the United States, hitting soybeans — America’s largest agricultural export — especially hard. Now, the same process is unfolding once more. Trump announced on Monday a $12 billion aid package for farmers injured by his global trade war.
"The proper solution to farmers’ financial woes in 2025 is the same as it was in 2018: end the tariffs. Instead, the Trump administration has chosen to paint over the problem with a $12 billion bailout."
• How Far Can Donald Trump Take Emergency Power? (Jeannie Suk Gersen, New Yorker, 11-6-25)
In the Supreme Court’s tariffs case, the conservative Justices will weigh two conflicting impulses regarding Presidential authority.
• Tracking Trump Tariffs on Countries and Products (NY Times interactive, 7-28-25, excellent graphics)
Since returning to office, President Trump has waged a global trade war without parallel in modern history. Many economists had warned that these sky-high rates, and others around the world could, result in price increases for Americans, who generally bear the costs of higher imports. Perhaps in an indirect acknowledgment of that, Mr. Trump announced in November that he would lift tariffs on bread, beef, tomatoes, bananas, coffee and orange juice.
• Court appears dubious of Trump’s tariffs (Amy Howe, SCOTUS blog, 11-5-25)
"The Supreme Court on Wednesday seemed skeptical of President Donald Trump’s authority to impose sweeping tariffs in a series of executive orders earlier this year. During more than two-and-a-half hours of oral arguments, a majority of the justices appeared to agree with the small businesses and states challenging the tariffs that they exceeded the powers given to the president under a federal law providing him the authority to regulate commerce during national emergencies created by foreign threats.
"The law at the center of the case is the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Enacted in 1977, the president can invoke it “to deal with any unusual and extraordinary threat, which has its source in whole or substantial part outside the United States, to the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States,” if he declares a national emergency “with respect to such threat.” Under Section 1702 of the law, when there is a national emergency, the president may “regulate … importation or exportation” of “property in which any foreign country or a national thereof has any interest.”
---The International Emergency Economic Powers Act: Origins, Evolution, and Use (Congress.gov)
• Key Justices Cast a Skeptical Eye on Trump’s Tariffs (Ann E. Marimow, NY times, 11-5-25)
"The Supreme Court is considering whether the president acted legally when he used a 1977 emergency statute to impose tariffs on scores of countries. A majority of Supreme Court justices on Wednesday asked skeptical questions about President Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs on imports from nearly every U.S. trading partner, casting doubt on a centerpiece of the administration’s second-term agenda.
"The outcome of the case, which could be decided within weeks or months, has immense economic and political implications for U.S. businesses, consumers and the president’s trade policy.
"Several members of the court’s conservative majority, including Justice Amy Coney Barrett and Justice Neil M. Gorsuch, joined the liberal justices in sharply questioning the Trump administration’s assertion that it has the power to unilaterally impose tariffs without congressional approval.
The three liberal justices, including Justice Sonia Sotomayor, said: “You want to say tariffs are not taxes, but that’s exactly what they are. They are generating money from American citizens.”
• Trump, With Tariffs and Threats, Tries to Strong-Arm Nations to Retreat on Climate Goals (Lisa Friedman, NY Times, 8-27-25)
"The president has made no secret of his distaste for wind and solar in America. Now he’s taking his fossil fuel agenda overseas. Mr. Trump, who has joined with Republicans in Congress to shred federal support for electric vehicles and for solar and wind energy, is applying tariffs, levies and other mechanisms of the world’s biggest economy to induce other countries to burn more fossil fuels. His animus is particularly focused on the wind industry, which is a well-established and growing source of electricity in several European countries as well as in China and Brazil."
• What Trump’s new tariffs mean for pharmaceuticals and ‘patented’ drugs (Vivian Ho, Victoria Craw and Daniel Gilbert, Washington Post, 9-2-25)
Trump said brand-name prescription drugs would be subject to tariffs unless their manufacturers are actively building plants in the United States, sparking some confusion over how the policy would be implemented.
• Donald Trump has a total meltdown after Ontario implements a 25% surcharge on electricity in retaliation for his tariffs (Occupy Democrats, Twitter thread, 3-11-25)
Donald Trump has a total meltdown after Ontario implements a 25% surcharge on electricity in retaliation for his tariffs — whines that "your not even allowed to do that" and announces a "National Emergency on Electricity." Persuasive Facebook article. "Trump pictures himself as an emperor overseeing an ever-expanding American empire."
"In reality, Canada has zero interest in joining the United States. They are their own nation, with a proud history, culture, and civic structure. Why would they want to become part of a country overseen by a doddering, ignorant old man? "
• U.S. Economy Slowed in First Half of 2025 as Tariffs Scrambled Data (Ben Casselman, NY Times, 7-30-25)
Gross domestic product rebounded in the spring after contracting at the start of the year, but consumer spending remained weak. “Headline numbers are hiding the economy’s true performance, which is slowing as tariffs take a bite out of activity,” Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist for the insurer Nationwide, wrote in a note to clients.
• History of tariffs in the United States (Wikipedia) Good for an overview of what happened when.
---Protectionism in the United States § 1980s to present
---Tariffs in the second Trump administration
• A Wild Card for the Board Game Business: Trump’s Tariffs (Hannah Ziegler, NY Times, 8-23-25)
Trade war uncertainty is forcing board and card game publishers in the United States to make tough decisions, putting the future of the industry in jeopardy.
• Appeals court strikes down many Trump tariffs, but delays enforcement until October (Devan Cole, Katelyn Polantz, Ramishah Maruf, and Elisabeth Buchwald, CNN Business, 8-29-25) A federal appeals court Friday struck down many of President Donald Trump’s historic tariffs, saying he unlawfully leaned on emergency powers to impose the import taxes.
The International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize tariffs like the ones Trump used the law for earlier this year, the Federal Circuit said in an unsigned opinion upholding a lower-court ruling against Trump’s tariffs. The judges noted that Trump’s unprecedented tariffs are an overstep of his power because the ability to impose taxes, including tariffs, is “a core Congressional power” that the Constitution grants to the legislative branch.
Trump has used his sweeping tariffs to reshape not just global trade, but alliances with friendly nations and relationships with adversaries. The levies are a cornerstone of his economic plan.
---Trump’s global tariffs are unlawful, appeals court says (Katherine Faulders, Peter Charalambous, and Steven Portnoy, ABC News, 8-29-25) The tariffs remain in effect as the Trump administration is expected to appeal.
• 'The Economist' editor unpacks the 'biggest trade policy shock' of Trump's tariffs (Terry Gross, Fresh Air, 4-9-25) President Trump's sweeping "Liberation Day" tariffs have upended the global economy, sending stock markets into turmoil. "This is, without a doubt, the biggest trade policy shock, I think, in history," Zanny Minton Beddoes, the editor-in-chief of The Economist, says.
"Trump last week ordered a minimum 10% tax on nearly everything the U.S. buys from other countries. He's also ordered much higher levies on things the country buys from China, Japan and the European Union. However, a lot of those tariffs are in flux, because almost each day the president has either increased some tariffs or paused others." And then he increased them to preposterous proportions.
• Trump’s tariffs are devastating the Halloween industry (Natasha Chen, CNN, 10-2-25)
Zephro’s company, Trick or Trick Studios, produces and imports goods that are sold to more than 10,000 retailers around the world, 65% in the United States. He has paid upwards of $800,000 in tariff costs so far this year. The Halloween and Costume Association said roughly 90% of Halloween products contain at least one component made overseas, most often in China.
• 'Punch our customers in the face.' Farm concerns about Trump tariffs could fuel 2026 races
(Bart Jansen USA Today, 10-2-25)
Tariffs could become a campaign issue in several states that are highly dependent on trade with open or competitive Senate seats such as Iowa, Michigan and North Carolina.
Trump contends tariffs will bring trillions of dollars to the Treasury and force other countries to negotiate more favorable trade deals. Carmakers in Michigan have largely shielded customers from billions in tariff costs, but polling reveals concerns about prospects for inflation and job cuts.
Soybean farmers such as Caleb Ragland are worried the country's largest agricultural export could lose China as a customer in the trade war.
• Investors could face a bonfire night surprise on Trump tariffs (Gillian Tett, Opinion, Financial Times, 10-3-25) The legal tussle over the president’s trade policy is a result of the way he wields power.
"Now another drama looms: on November 5, the Supreme Court will start to consider whether Trump’s tariffs, introduced under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), are legal — or not.
"If they are ultimately deemed illegal, there is a chance the White House may have to repay billions of dollars of tariff revenue to businesses, creating trade and fiscal chaos. It could also undermine Trump’s approach to geoeconomics, the use of economic policy for statecraft, since he currently assumes he can act without asking Congress."
• VIDEO: Trump's tariffs, changing markets and what an uncertain economy means for you (NPR Staff, 10-2-25) "When President Trump came into office, he promised to fuel an economic boom with a magic bullet: tariffs. They're taxes added to a wide range of imports. And money is coming in, more than $30 billion a month so far.
"Eight months into Trump's second term, it's unclear what the larger impact of these tariffs will have on the economy. Despite that, the president keeps promising to roll out new ones. NPR's chief economics correspondent Scott Horsley explains."
• Trump’s tariffs as fiscal folly (Kimberly Clausing Maurice Obstfeld, CEPR, 10-20-25)
"In 2025, the US government underwent a large fiscal switch, with Congress enacting large income tax cuts and the second Trump administration putting new tariffs on goods at levels not seen in the US since the Great Depression. This column evaluates tariffs as a broad tool of fiscal policy, reviewing both tax policy and macroeconomic considerations, and concludes that this fiscal switch will leave most Americans worse off.
"While tariffs can be a useful tool for some circumstances in a rules-based system (for example, as a remedy or safeguard), the Trump administration’s ad hoc deployment of high tariffs against nearly every country in the world does serious harm to US international economic and political relations. The underlying policy aims of tariffs, some of which are laudable, would be far better addressed through other tools. For instance, many other changes in the tax system can raise general revenue, the income tax system can redistribute income, and subsidies can encourage strategic industries, all at a lower efficiency cost than deploying tariffs."
• Why this farmer calls Trump's tariffs a 'complete bust' (Josh Lipton, Yahoo Finance Video, 10-3-25) Farmer and former president of the Missouri Farm Bureau, Blake Hurst, joins Market Domination Overtime host Josh Lipton to discuss Trump's tariff policies and what a bailout and would mean for American farmers. "We put on tariffs, collect money, and then we take that money, which we've collected from American consumers including farmers who buy imported goods. We take that money and give it to the industry that's been hurt by those very same tariffs. Seems to me that it would make a lot more sense to get rid of the middle man, drop the tariffs and again, resume normal trade relations."
• Robert De Niro Slams Trump In Cannes Honorary Palme d’Or Speech: “We Are Fighting Like Hell For The Democracy We Once Took For Granted” (Melanie Goodfellow, Nancy Tartaglione, Deadline, 5-23-25)
An impassioned De Niro used his acceptance speech to address issues he said are facing the artistic community and threatening democracy under the presidency of Donald Trump. “In my country, we are fighting like hell for the democracy we once took for granted. That affects all of us here because the arts are democratic. Art is inclusive, it brings people together. Art embraces diversity and that’s why art is a threat, that’s why we are a threat to autocrats and fascists,” he said.
“America’s philistine president has had himself appointed head of one of our premier cultural institutions,” he continued. “He has cut funding and support to the arts, humanities and education. And now he has announced a 100% tariff on films produced outside of the U.S. Let that sink in. … You can’t put a price on creativity, but apparently you can put a tariff on it.”
“This is not just an American problem, it’s a global one,” he said. “We can’t all just sit back and watch. We have to act and we have to act now, not with violence but with great passion and determination. It’s time for everyone who cares about liberty to organize, to protest — and when there are elections, of course, to vote. Tonight and for the next 11 days we show our strength and commitment by celebrating art in this glorious festival. Libérté, égalité, fraternité.”
• Trump 2.0 tariff tracker (ReedSmith, Trade Compliance Resource Hub, 5-5-25) Reed Smith’s International Trade and National Security team tracks the latest threatened and implemented U.S. tariffs, as well as counter-tariffs from other countries around the world. Increases the tariff rate from 10% to 25%. Expands the list of derivative products subject to the tariffs (effective Mar. 12, 2025)
---Trump Tariffs: The Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War (Erica York, Alex Durante, Tax Foundation, 5-5-25)
---Tracking Every Trump Tariff and Its Economic Effect (Bloomberg's tariff tracker, 3-22-25) Financial Times also has a tariff tracker. Search and you'll find several tariff trackers (some may be behind paywalls).
---Trump’s Trade War and the Economic Impact: Tariff Tracker (Jeremy Diamond, Adrian Leung, Jane Pong, Christopher Udemans, and Jason Kao, Bloomberg Law, 4-14-25)
• Donald Trump versus Barbie (John Cassidy, News & Politics, New Yorker, 5-25)
Can the Administration retain public support for a trade policy that could force Americans to buy less stuff?
"In a televised Cabinet meeting, the President brought up the possibility that his trade war, and particularly his punitive tariffs on Chinese goods, would create empty shelves at retailers.
“Well, maybe the children will have two dolls instead of thirty dolls,” he said. “And maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally.”
To Greg Ahearn, the head of the Toy Association, an industry lobbying group, it was no laughing matter. Thanks to the tariffs, the industry is facing “a frozen supply chain that is putting Christmas at risk,” he told the Times. “If we don’t start production soon, there’s a high probability of a toy shortage this holiday season.”
Despite this warning, Trump doubled down on his statements over the weekend, telling Kristen Welker, the host of NBC’s “Meet the Press,” “I’m just saying [children] don’t need to have thirty dolls. They can have three. They don’t need to have two hundred and fifty pencils. They can have five.”
• What have US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies achieved? (Al Jazeera, 5-15-25) A mini-history of Trump and tariffs. What is clear is that Trump’s tariff announcements have roiled global markets, wiping out trillions in value, and leaving many businesses stumped on how to plan for the future amid the never-ending uncertainty. There are fears that the uncertainty is taking a toll on the US economy. A Bloomberg poll of economists put the chances of a recession next year at almost 50-50, the news agency reported on Monday.
• How Will Trump’s Current Tariffs Compare with Extending His 2017 Individual Tax Cuts? (Erica York, Tax Foundation,5-6-25) Though taxpayers would, on average, receive a tax cut given the net reduction in taxes, tariffs would offset more than half of the benefit of the tax cuts overall, and up to two-thirds of the benefit for lower- and middle-income taxpayers.
• Trump trade tariffs slump widens to ‘nearly all U.S. exports,’ supply chain data shows (Lori Ann LaRocco, CNBC, 5-6-25) An exports slide that began in early 2025 has reached most ports across the U.S. and nearly all export market products as the trade impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs worsens, with agriculture the hardest hit. As businesses cancel orders from China, U.S. imports continue to plummet, with a 43% week-over-week drop in containers through April 28.
• Politically Connected Firms Benefit From Trump Tariff Exemptions Amid Secrecy, Confusion (Robert Faturechi, Trump Administration, ProPublica, 4-22-25) The administration’s lack of transparency about tariff exemptions has experts concerned that some firms might be winning narrow carve-outs behind closed doors. “It could be corruption, but it could just as easily be incompetence,” one lobbyist said.
• The Political Tariff Trap for Republicans ( Brendan Buck, Opinion, NY Times, 5-7-25) "Many Republicans are hoping that the tax bill can blunt the economic damage caused by the Trump tariffs, but that is highly unlikely. The way Mr. Trump in particular is talking about the legislative package is doing them no favors. He and Republican leaders have sold the extension of the tax law as tax cuts “for everybody.” It will be “the biggest bill in the history of our country, in terms of tax cuts and regulation cuts and other things,” Mr. Trump said last month. But the reality is it’s no cut at all for most people. The rates they are preserving have been in place for more than seven years now....
"In 2017, as counselor to House Speaker Paul Ryan, I helped pass the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. It was a significant achievement, I remain proud of it and I’ve worked with groups that want to extend it. The law made American businesses more competitive by permanently lowering the corporate tax rate and eliminating scores of unproductive carve outs for businesses. It simplified the individual tax code and brought meaningful relief to families in almost every tax bracket. The scale of its ultimate economic impact was muddied by Covid, but I have no doubt it contributed to the robust economy that preceded the pandemic.
"Today, allowing the expiring provisions of the law to lapse would significantly raise taxes on families at a moment of cratering economic confidence. Congress should absolutely extend the law and prevent a tax increase on working Americans. The political problem is there is little new here for voters. Despite Mr. Trump’s blitz of sweeping executive actions, there is a peculiar smallness to his legislative program."
"Even if making the income tax rates permanent provides a degree of economic certainty and encourages investment, that is simply no match for the blowtorch the president is taking to the economy with his tariff regime. And Democrats have made clear that they will try to make Republicans pay a price for cutting Medicaid — perhaps the most tangible policy change that some Americans will feel."
"To defy history and keep control of the House, Republicans will need to persuade voters they are working on the cost of living and creating a humming economy. The president, of course, is moving us in the other direction, raising costs and battering markets with tariffs. And many economists warn that the worst impacts of the tariffs, higher prices and empty shelves, won’t arrive until this summer — just in time to further overshadow the potential passage of the president’s tax cuts."
• Top Trump Crypto Buyers Vying for Dinner Seats Are Likely Foreign, Data Shows *(Bloomberg Crypto, 5-7-25)
• Tariffs against Canada and Mexico now in effect, sending stock markets tumbling and igniting a trade war (Landry Langford, Arkansas Traveler, 5-5-25) Many critics of the move have warned that the tariffs could raise costs for American consumers. Warren Buffett, a prominent investor and philanthropist, warned in a CBS interview that tariffs are “an act of war” and could lead to inflating costs. “Over time, they’re attacks on goods,” Buffett said. “I mean, the tooth fairy doesn’t pay them.”
Despite the backlash and retaliations, Trump is standing by his decision, mocking Trudeau in a Truth Social post and threatening to retaliate as well.
• Trump claims he is negotiating with China on trade. China says otherwise. (Ana Swanson and Jonathan Swan, NY Times, 4-25-25)
As he left the White House for his trip to Rome for the pope’s funeral, President Trump was pressed on his claim to Time magazine that President Xi Jinping of China had called him to talk about tariffs. According to a pool report, when asked if he had talked with Xi, Trump said he had spoken to him “numerous times,” but would not say whether they had talked since he imposed the new tariffs. Chinese officials said today that the two countries are not negotiating on tariffs, indicating that Trump is trying to create the impression that more is going on behind the scenes to resolve the trade war than actually is.
• How to Think About the Tariffs (Matthew C. Klein, The Overshoot, 4-4-25) This is bad policy, executed thoughtlessly. But it is worth thinking through exactly *why* it is bad.
• This Is What Trumponomics Is Really About (Kyla Scanlon, Opinion, NY Times, 4-16-25) Reindustrialization. But "the Trump administration sometimes appears to ignore that advanced automation means far fewer workers to produce the same manufactured goods. Even if factories return, they will employ a small fraction of the people they once did.
"To reindustrialize will require investment in people and machines — and a coherent strategy. Given the Trump administration’s aversion to collaboration and the internal contradictions of the factions within the administration, its reindustrialization drive appears disconnected from reality and destined to fail."
• The unpredictability of Trump’s tariffs will increase the pain (The Economist, 3-27-25) The cost of uncertainty. Businesses are struggling to adjust.
• Larry Summers on Trump: ‘The First Rule of Holes Is Stop Digging’ (Lawrence H. Summers, NY Times, 4-14-25) The former treasury secretary on the president’s chaotic trade war. Summers explains the dangers of President Trump’s economic policies, and why we should expect more instability ahead. Tariff levels are still at once in century levels in terms of what they’re taking out of the economy and the punitive level of tariffs on China creates an entirely unprecedented situation. What has people most scared is that the U.S. has switched its pattern from being a bastion of strength to trading like an emerging market. And that’s a pretty profound thing because it takes decades to build up credibility, but it can be lost in a matter of days or weeks.
• Oren Cass makes the case for tariffs. (NY Times, 4-10-25) Is the short-term economic pain of President Trump’s unpredictable approach to tariffs a reasonable price to pay for a more resilient America? Mr. Trump appears to think so, and so does Oren Cass — sort of. On the first episode of “Interesting Times,” the founder and chief economist of the think tank American Compass joins Ross Douthat to discuss and debate the Trump administration’s drastic trade war.
• The Kleptocracy Presidency (Anne Applebaum, The Atlantic, 4-14-25) Once upon a time (and not even that long ago), blatant conflicts of interest, especially involving foreign entities, were something presidents sought to avoid. Under Trump, conflicts of interest are just part of the system.
• The Economic Effects of President Trump’s Tariffs (PENN Wharton's Budget Model, 4-10-25) "Tariffs are estimated to raise about the same amount of revenue as increasing the corporate income tax from 21 to 36 percent, in the absence of these recent tariffs. While raising the corporate tax rate is generally seen as highly economically distorting, tariffs would reduce GDP and wages by more than twice as much. All households, regardless of age or income, would be worse off. The estimated economic declines are likely lower bounds, with actual declines potentially even larger.
"Many existing trade and macroeconomic models fail to capture the full harm caused by tariffs, focusing mainly on the “current account” flow of goods and services. Larger tariffs would also decrease international capital flows, reducing worldwide demand for U.S. Treasuries. This is especially costly under the nation’s current baseline debt path, which is increasing faster than GDP. U.S. households would need to purchase more bonds, requiring bond prices to fall (yields increase), domestic capital investment prices to fall (the marginal product of capital increases), or both. Even conservatively assuming only domestic capital investment prices fall, the reduction in economic activity is more than twice as large as a tax increase on capital returns that raises the same amount of revenue."
• Tariff (Wikipedia) A long, informative entry.
"A tariff is a duty (a tax) imposed by a national government, customs territory, or supranational union on imports (or, exceptionally, exports) of goods. Besides being a source of revenue, import duties can also be a form of regulation of foreign trade and policy that burden foreign products to encourage or safeguard domestic industry.
'Protective tariffs' are among the most widely used instruments of protectionism, along with import quotas and export quotas and other non-tariff barriers to trade. In April 2025, President Donald Trump of the United States announced a substantial increase in tariffs and a 10% base tariff on all imported products, resulting in the US trade-weighted average tariff rising from 2% to an estimated 24%, the highest level in over a century, including under the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act of 1930" (just before the Great Depression).
• What happened the last time the US went all-in on tariffs? (Nicole Narea, Vox, 4-8-25) Plus 6 other questions about Trump’s tariffs, answered.
---What Trump’s tariff pause can’t solve (Nicole Narea, Vox, 4-10-25) Nobody knows what Trump will do next — and that’s a problem. Even with some of the tariffs paused, there’s a deeper economic malaise taking hold. The uncertainty created by Trump’s whiplash-inducing changes to the US’s trade policy is not just going to evaporate. And even at their current level, Trump’s tariffs are already upending the global trade order in hard-to-predict ways. That’s a problem for business owners, investors, and the everyday Americans impacted by their decisions. The pullback did nothing to address economic uncertainty.
---Trump’s tariff war isn’t over (Eric Levitz, Vox, 4-9-25) There’s a questionable assumption fueling the stock market rally. Wall Street’s burgeoning optimism for the American economy depends on the assumption that Trump will continue retreating from his current position. If he instead maintains his current course, the US will face surging prices and a heightened risk of recession.
• Timeline: All the twists and turns in the US-China trade war (Lou Robinson, Rosa de Acosta, Elisabeth Buchwald and Soph Warnes, CNN, 4-12-25) The growing trade war between China and the United States shows little signs of easing after massive tit-for-tat tariffs between the world’s two biggest economies. Beijing raised its tariffs on US imports to 125%, one day after the White House clarified that Chinese imports now face tariffs of at least 145%. Excellent timeline showing the dizzying back-and-forth between the US and China.
• On-Again, Off-Again Tariffs and Their Toll on Travelers (Elaine Glusac, The Frugal Traveler, NY Times, 4-10-25) The travel industry doesn’t know what to expect from whipsawing U.S. policies. But concerns are hitting the bottom line, which could mean higher prices, and more confusion, for tourists.
• Inside Factories in China, a Struggle to Survive Trump’s Tariffs (Keith Bradsher, NY Times, 4-9-25) Small factories with tiny profit margins have played a central role in China’s international competitiveness. As President Trump ratcheted up new tariffs on goods from China, the mood in the dusty streets and small factories of southeastern China was a mixture of anger, worry and resolve. Many could now face disaster.
• Between tariffs and survival, American business owners are doing alarming math (Alina Selyukh, North Country Public Radio, The Economist, 4-7-25) "Even if we pass some (cost) to the consumer, we can't pass it all," says Wells, based in Virginia. "So I really think the honest answer is that businesses will close." For some, it's survival mode, which means shrinking selections and freezing hiring.
• The tariff madness of King Donald, explained (The Economist,4-10-25) As his policy turns on a dime, pity those tasked with justifying his actions.
--- The Trump Tariffs Are How Everything Works Now (Brian Barrett, Politics, Wired, 4-3-25)
---A Quick Post About Tariffs (Kathleen Schmidt, 4-9-25) The US is barreling toward a recession for no good reason, and dragging the world—and a few thousand penguins on remote Antarctic islands—down with it. While just about every industry tries to figure out the new economic order, books are in an enviable position. [Books] are exempt from tariffs. But many of the ingredients that make up books are not. Paper, pulp, ink, fuel, shipping, and production costs (in China) are all affected, according to Publishing Confidential. There is particular concern for small publishers that use imported goods or overseas printing. They may be hit hardest as they struggle to absorb increased costs. The Wall Street Journal reports that large publishers, too, are assessing costs. Even if they have printing presses in the U.S., parts for those machines are likely made in China: “Book publishers are trying to read into what the tariffs mean for them, but say it is too early to fully gauge the potential impact.”
---An Overview of the 2025 Tariffs (ABA, BookWeb, 4-8-25)
• Chaos (Robert Reich, 4-14-25) Trump has put the entire global economy into chaos. 401(k)s are tanking, savings are shrinking, treasury bonds are losing value, supply chains are convulsing. The American oligarchy is petrified by Trump’s economic chaos but careful not to criticize him directly. They are damning with faint praise.
• Trump’s Encouragement of Stock Investors Draws Scrutiny (Zolan Kanno-Youngs, NY Times, 4-9-25) President Trump urged his social media audience to invest in the stock market just hours before pausing most of his reciprocal tariffs, raising questions among government ethics experts about market manipulation.
• Walmart Says Tariffs Have Added Uncertainty to Its Outlook (Keith Bradsher, NY Times, 4-9-25) Executives at the largest retailer in the United States acknowledged the new environment, but told investors that they were confident in the company’s strategy. They emphasized that Trump’s tariff moves have made their first-quarter growth difficult to predict.
---Live Updates: U.S. Market Tumbles; Trump Says China Tariff Is at Least 145% (NY Times, 4-10-25) The S&P 500 fell 4 percent by early afternoon, as investors assessed the worsening trade war with China. The White House clarified the total new tariffs on Chinese goods now stands at 145 percent.
---This Trump policy didn’t work in his first term. He’s trying again. (Eric Levitz, Vox, 2-11-25) Why steel and aluminum tariffs are back — and might stick. Trump’s commitment to re-running his experiment with large steel and aluminum tariffs is curious, since his first try yielded terrible results. It goes without saying that tariffs harm domestic consumers: Putting a tax on imported goods tends to make them more expensive.
---What Trump’s tariff pause can’t solve (Nicole Narea, Vox, 4-10-25) Nobody knows what Trump will do next — and that’s a problem. Even with some of the tariffs paused, there’s a deeper economic malaise taking hold. The uncertainty created by Trump’s whiplash-inducing changes to the US’s trade policy is not just going to evaporate. And even at their current level, Trump’s tariffs are already upending the global trade order in hard-to-predict ways. That’s a problem for business owners, investors, and the everyday Americans impacted by their decisions. The pullback did nothing to address economic uncertainty.
---Trump’s tariff plan is an inflation plan (Ellen Ioanes, Vox, 11-26-24) New tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China could make life more expensive.
---Tariffs, trade war inflation impact to be ‘pretty ugly’ by summer, economists say (Greg Iacurci, CNBC, 4-10-[25) Economists expect that tariffs will lead to higher prices for consumers. The price impact will be noticeable by summer, economists said. Food prices will be among the early indicators, then physical goods, they said. President Donald Trump may change course regarding policy, however.
---U.S. and China Headed for ‘Monumental’ Split, Putting World Economy on Edge (Daisuke Wakabayashi, Alexandra Stevenson, Patricia Cohen, and Keith Bradsher, NY Times, 4-10-25) Good graphics and timelines. A dizzying escalation of tariffs has unraveled a trade relationship between the United States and China forged over decades, jeopardizing the fate of two superpowers and threatening to drag down the world economy.
"The brinkmanship displayed by the two countries has already far exceeded the battles they waged during President Trump’s first term. In 2018 and 2019, Mr. Trump raised tariffs on China over 14 months. The latest escalation has played out mostly over a matter of days, with levies that are far greater and apply to broader swath of goods."
• U.S. stocks slide again as euphoria over Trump's tariff pause fades (Willem Marx and Sherisse Pham, NPR, 4-10-25) U.S. stocks slumped on Thursday, giving up a chunk of the spectacular gains seen in the previous session, as some of the relief after President Trump paused many of his tariffs started to dissipate. Many investors say they would rather see an end to this explosive trade war between the world's two largest economies. But China's foreign ministry spokesman, Lin Jian, said on Thursday that China is prepared to continue fighting. But, Minton Beddoes adds, the economic turmoil caused by the tariffs creates "a lot uncertainty, and a lot pain for consumers because tariffs are taxes on consumers. The people who pay this in the end, the cost of the tariffs, are people who pay more for the things that they buy."
Also in this issue: On if the tariffs are to re-industrialize America, or if they're a negotiating tool. Sen. Maria Cantwell says there is bipartisan support to rein Trump's tariffs. Trump trade official signals tariffs are negotiating tool amid GOP skepticism. On the idea that tariffs will bring manufacturing back to the U.S. On what a tariff war with China might look like
"Being in Washington, DC this week has felt like being on the fringes of an all-consuming—and terrifying—reality TV spectacle: the Trump Tariff Show. Against the made-for-TV backdrop of America’s capital in (somewhat chilly) springtime, my colleagues and I shuttled around to meetings with administration officials, congressmen, diplomats and scholars. We learned about the divisions among Donald Trump’s economic advisers (crudely, the “pause and negotiate” camp led by Scott Bessent, the treasury secretary, versus hardliners, such as Peter Navarro). We heard earnest—if unconvincing—attempts by officials to explain the logic of causing the biggest tariff shock in history. We witnessed the bafflement of diplomats and politicians from tariffed countries. We could sense the growing alarm as the markets plunged—and the bewildered relief on Wednesday afternoon after Mr Trump blinked and announced a 90-day pause on his bonkers “reciprocal” tariffs.
• Inside Trump’s tariff retreat: How fears of a bond market catastrophe convinced Trump to hit the pause button (Kevin Liptak, Jeff Zeleny, Phil Mattingly, Kayla Tausche and Alayna Treene, CNN, 4-9-25)
"Even for a president famous for his policy bobs and weaves, Wednesday’s announcement he was pausing his long-touted reciprocal tariffs for three months amounted to a stunning reversal of a plan he had appeared only a day earlier to be fully behind and came as his own trade representative was testifying on Capitol Hill to the benefits of the tariffs, seemingly catching him unaware of the pause.
"Days of pressure from fellow Republicans, business executives and even his close friends hadn’t appeared to move Trump, who insisted last week: “MY POLICIES WILL NEVER CHANGE.”
"By Wednesday, however, it had become evident the campaign to convince Trump to change course would not let up. It had also become plain after a sharp sell-off in US government bond markets — usually a safe corner for investors — that the economic ramifications of the president’s strategy were potentially catastrophic and worse than his advisers had previously predicted.
"It was another whirlwind Wednesday at the White House, with advisers scrambling to keep pace with the president’s decisions. He sought to take a victory lap after one of the most humbling retreats of his presidency, eager to take credit for the stock market gains Wednesday – without mentioning the record-setting, trillion-dollar losses over the last week.
• Hitler’s Terrible Tariffs (Timothy W. Ryback, The Atlantic, 4-20-25) From almost the moment Adolf Hitler took office as chancellor of Germany, tariffs were at the top of his government’s economic agenda. But rumors of potential tariffs and the abrogation of international agreements, along with Hitler’s challenges to the constitutional order, sent alarm bells clanging. By seeking to “liberate” Germans from a globalized world order, the Nazi government sent the national economy careening backwards.
• China urges Trump to correct mistakes and heed ‘rational voices’ on reciprocal tariffs (Erin Doherty, CNBC, 4-13-25) China called the tariff exemptions a “small step” and urged the U.S. to “completely abolish” the reciprocal tariffs.
“We urge the U.S. to heed the rational voices of the international community and domestic parties, take a big stride in correcting its mistakes,” according to China’s Commerce Ministry. China is also “evaluating the relevant impact” of the tariff exemptions.
• How China went from courting Trump to ‘never yield’ tariff defiance ( Reuters, 4-13-25) After unsuccessfully courting Trump, Beijing takes hardline stance on trade, orders foreign affairs and commerce officials to cancel vacations. Trump says China has panicked. China tries to rally international support against tariffs.
• A Great Unraveling Is Underway (Thomas L. Friedman, NY Times, 3-11-25)
"If you are confused by President Trump’s zigzagging strategies on Ukraine, tariffs, microchips or a host of other issues, it is not your fault. It’s his. What you are seeing is a president who ran for re-election to avoid criminal prosecution and to get revenge on people he falsely accused of stealing the 2020 election. He never had a coherent theory of the biggest trends in the world today and how to best align America with them to thrive in the 21st century. That is not why he ran.
"And once he won, Trump brought back his old obsessions and grievances — with tariffs and Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky and Canada — and staffed his administration with an extraordinary number of fringe ideologues who met one overriding criterion: loyalty first and always to Trump and his whims over and above the Constitution, traditional values of American foreign policy or basic laws of economics.
"The result is what you are seeing today: a crazy cocktail of on-again-off-again tariffs, on-again-off-again assistance for Ukraine, on-again-off-again cuts in government departments and programs both domestic and foreign — conflicting edicts all carried out by cabinet secretaries and staff members who are united by a fear of being tweeted about by Elon Musk or Trump should they deviate from whatever policy line emerged unfiltered in the last five minutes from our Dear Leader’s social media feed."
Roundups of links to stories about Donald Trump (on the Writers and Editors blog):
Here are links to all of my roundups of facts and counter-opinions about Trump's presidencies in several blog posts, partly so nonsubscribers can read articles in the NY Times:
---Trump's first term (blog post highlighting points in NY Times opinion piece, 7-19-24)
---Trump stinks: Let me count the ways (blog post, 11-20-20, updated 4-5-22)
---Trump, January 6, opinions vs. facts, indictment, trials, election tactics, political agenda (blog post, 10-12-24)
---'Trump's rampage through democracy' a/k/a Trump's Damaging Initiatives and Priorities (blog post, 4-5-25)
---The problem with Trump's tariffs (blog post, 4-10-25)
---Trump upends tradition of nonpartisan military, alters priorities of U.S. government (blog post, updated 10-6-25)
See also
---How Project 2025 recommends changing American life (blog post, 10-27-24)